Kim Jong-Un’s provocations toward the South, as expressed through Kim Yo-Jong, are becoming increasingly aggressive. This stems from his deep dissatisfaction with President Lee Jae-Myung’s behavior.
First, Kim Jong-Un views Lee Jae-Myung and his government's appeasement policies toward North Korea as a domestic and international political maneuver.
He sees them as an attempt to shift the blame for the heightened tensions on the Korean Peninsula and the strained inter-Korean relations onto himself. Unlike the Yoon Suk-Yeol administration, Lee Jae-Myung appears to be making every effort possible to improve inter-Korean relations and promote peace on the Korean Peninsula, aiming to garner public support and secure victory in next year's local elections.
Kim Jong-Un’s perspective is well-founded. He was severely defrauded by Moon Jae-In.
Kim Jong-Un tried to deceive Moon Jae-In by pretending to be fooled by Moon Jae-In’s bright smile and rhetoric like ‘apostle of peace’, but Kim Jong-Un was truly fooled.
Moon Jae-In presented himself as the go-between for Kim Jong-Un’s desperately desired ‘appropriate’ nuclear negotiations and talks with the United States to ease sanctions on North Korea, and Kim Jong-Un trusted him and met with him no fewer than three times. He even mobilized 150,000 Pyongyang citizens to give Moon a speech that he himself found deeply moving and moving.
As a result, in February 2019, he traveled by train for over 60 hours to Hanoi, only to suffer the humiliation of a lifetime from President Trump. He had to vent his frustrations by slamming his fists for another 60 hours.
In contrast, Moon Jae-In achieved a landslide victory in the 2020 general elections by making bold claims about mediating North Korea-US talks to resolve the North Korean nuclear issue and establish peace on the Korean Peninsula, and about leading the September 19 Military Agreement between the two Koreas to prevent war.
Despite this, Moon Jae-In did nothing of real help to Kim Jong-Un. He simply couldn’t. Untrusted by the United States, Moon Jae-In failed to deliver on any of the rosy promises he had made to Kim Jong-Un.
Unable to come forward himself — for fear that doing so would prove his own incompetence, having been fooled by Moon Jae-In — Kim Jong-Un instead had ordered Kim Yo-Jong and other subordinates to hurl a barrage of criticism at Moon Jae-In, including insults that treated him like an animal rather than a human being.
Nevertheless, Moon Jae-In fulfilled his term, building on the lingering scent of Kim Jong-Un’s visit to Seoul and the declaration of the end of the Korean War.
At the end of his term, Moon proudly announced that Kim Jong-Un had sent him a letter expressing his respect as a parting gift, thereby acknowledging his efforts for peace on the Korean Peninsula, both domestically and internationally.
The letter Kim Jong-Un sent to Moon Jae-In, whom he had previously criticized with unspeakable profanity, was a ‘smiling threat’, pressuring Moon Jae-In to refrain from sharing his conversations with Moon Jae-In and from making negative comments about him after leaving office.
Kim Jong-Un is coldly and accurately giving Lee Jae-Myung the same assessment, demanding an end to ‘domestic and international political show’.
Second, Kim Jong-Un continues to pressure Lee Jae-Myung and his government to formalize ‘fundamental changes’ in their unification and North Korea policies.
Kim Jong-Un believes that Lee Jae-Myung has less credibility with Trump and his administration than Moon Jae-In, and that, under these circumstances, there is no value in leveraging Lee Jae-Myung in his US policy.
In an interview with the Yomiuri Shimbun on August 19th, President Lee proposed a ‘three-stage denuclearization’ solution (Stage 1: freezing nuclear and missile programs, Stage 2: reduction, and Stage 3: denuclearization) in which, “The South Korean government will maintain close cooperation with the United States and actively engage in inter-Korean dialogue to create conditions for freezing, reducing, and even dismantling nuclear weapons.”
Kim Jong-Un is likely scoffing. There’s no reason to talk to Lee Jae-myung’s South Korea without engaging in direct talks with the United States on nuclear issues especially when Trump is desperately looking forward to it.
With Lee Jae-Myung’s role in liaising with the United States now completely absent, Kim Jong-Un is demanding fundamental changes in inter-Korean relations, something he believes Lee Jae-Myung and his government can achieve.
This would be a response to Kim Jong-Un’s ‘Two Nations, Two States’ theory, as I’ve repeatedly emphasized.
Even though the claim of two nations is practically impossible given the South’s domestic situation and public sentiment, Kim Jong-Un is pressuring Lee Jae-Myung and his government to at least accept the two-state claim that North and South Korea are now separate states.
In his 80th Liberation Day speech on August 15th, President Lee declared that he respects the North Korean regime and will not absorb it for unification, but this fell short of Kim Jong-Un’s expectations.
Respect for the North Korean regime has been a virtual fait accompli since the adoption of the ‘Inter-Korean Basic Agreement’ in 1991. Kim Jong-Un perceives this reiteration as an insult.
Can the Kim Jong-Un regime, which exists in reality, be completely denied? North and South Korea are separate member states of the UN, having joined simultaneously.
Even though West Germany signed the ‘Basic Treaty’ with East Germany in 1972 and simultaneously joined the UN the following year, and signed agreements on sports, youth, culture, science and technology, media and broadcasting, and environmental protection, and implemented numerous inter-resident contacts, exchanges, and cooperation, West Germany still recognized East Germany just as a political entity and system, but never accepted East Germany’s two-state claim.
East German residents were also defined as German citizens, automatically acquiring West German citizenship upon moving to West Germany. Meanwhile, East Germans recognized that West Germany offered a far more humane life in all aspects of freedom, democracy, human rights, and welfare, and they chose, decided, and acted to become one with the West German system, thus achieving unification.
Kim Jong-Un, who studied abroad in Europe and understood better than anyone how East Germany collapsed, could not possibly be unaware of what respect for the system could mean.
Kim Jong-Un’s demand is that Lee Jae-Myung and his government publicly declare that South and North Korea are clearly two separate states. He demands that they establish a policy of “Let’s not pursue unification. Unification is realistically difficult, so coexistence through exchange and cooperation is de facto unification.”
This fundamentally removes the North Korean people’s motivation and basis for seeking unification and unity with the South.
Kim Jong-Un is demanding that Lee Jae-Myung and his government pursue and promote ‘general peace under international law’, not ‘peace specifically for the Korean Peninsula’.
Kim Jong-Un will naturally respond to such a peace proposal, and the subsequent process is set in motion with remarkable speed. To ensure peace between the two countries, the ‘Armistice Agreement’ should be converted to a ‘Peace Agreement’. The United Nations Command in South Korea should naturally be disbanded. There will be overlapping demands, such as why joint South Korea-US military exercises and the stationing of US troops in South Korea are necessary after a peace agreement.
There is ample reason for Kim Jong-Un to pressure Lee Jae-myung for fundamental change. Kim Jong-Un undeniably facilitated Lee Jae-Myung’s presidential election victory. He remained silent on Lee Jae-Myung’s allegations that he remitted millions of dollars to North Korea.
Urging Lee Jae-Myung to make fundamental changes is tantamount to demanding a repayment of his debt to Kim Jong-Un. If Lee Jae-Myung fails to respond decisively, Kim Jong-Un could take action.
The possibility of Kim Jong-Un’s provocation.
Looking back, Kim Jong-Un did not engage in provocations during the Yoon Suk-Yeol administration. To say he could not provoke would be more accurate.
This is because, under ‘a principled North Korea policy’, the Yoon administration responded with ‘a proportional response’ and retaliated twice or even three times more aggressively to Kim Jong-Un’s provocations.
In response to the appearance of drones over Pyongyang and the scattering of anti-North Korea leaflets by civilian groups, Kim Jong-Un simply attached waste to balloons and sent them south. Kim Jong-Un feared that military action would inflict a devastating blow on himself and damage his leadership.
However, the situation is different now. Even if Kim Jong-Un provokes, will Lee Jae-Myung and his government be able to respond decisively?
Despite Kim Jong-Un’s apparent lack of interest in South Korea’s ban on loudspeakers and broadcasts, Lee Jae-Myung and his government are wary of Kim Jong-Un’s favor, with the Ministry of National Defense announcing its intention to ‘preemptively restore’ the September 19 Military Agreement of 2018 and the Ministry of Unification declaring that it would not publicly release the ‘North Korean Human Rights Report’, published since 2018, but only use it for internal purposes (August 19). Isn’t this a case of Lee Jae-Myung and his government trying to avoid offending Kim Jong-Un?
Kim Jong-Un could launch military provocations if Lee Jae-Myung, who owes him debts, doesn't act as he wishes.
Kim Jong-Un, through Kim Yo-Jong, is threatening Lee Jae-Myung with fundamental change, asserting, “Lee Jae-Myung is not a great man who can change the course of history.”
Lee Jae-Myung’s efforts to gain Kim Jong-Un’s approval will likely lead to measures such as allowing South Koreans to visit and tour North Korea, and sending long-term prisoners who ideologically reject South Korea to the North.
Nevertheless, Lee Jae-Myung’s path to meeting Kim Jong-Un remains distant.